IS leader may still be at large in Mindanao
Analysis also shows some Maute Group members remain, necessitating continuous counterterrorism operations.
HIGHLIGHTS:
“Maute Group likely to recruit again”
“Military aiming to strike local terror leaders” — Georgi Engelbrecht, Manila-based analyst
SABAH (Malaysia): The Philippine military recently confirmed that the mastermind of last December’s Mindanao university bombing was among nine pro-Islamic State terrorists killed during clashes with government forces on Jan. 25-26, 2024.
The Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) said in a statement on Feb. 12 described the alleged bombing mastermind, Khadafi Mimbesa also known as Engineer, as an “amir” or leader of the pro-Islamic State Maute Group.
The bombing occurred on Dec. 3, 2023, during a Catholic Mass held inside a gym at Mindanao State University in Marawi City, Lanao del Sur’s provincial capital, which killed four people and injured dozens others.
The other eight terrorist slain in the clashes in Tapurog village, Piagapo municipality, Lanao del Sur province, were identified as s Saumay Saiden alias Ustadz Omar/Abu Omar/Saumay, Salman alias Mikdad/Miqdad, Abdul Hadi alias Hodi Imam/Abday'n, Lacson Timbang alias Abdullah, King Fahad Dalig Untie alias Muhajeer/Abu Khalid, Asnawi Mael alias Hamza, Mauwiyah (an alias) and Mohaimen (an alias).
Analyses by a Manila-based analyst and SEA MILITANCY indicate the possible number of remaining members of the Maute Group, who along with the Abu Sayyaf Group in 2017 laid siege to Marawi City that saw over 1,200 people, mostly militants, killed during the ensuing five-month urban battle with government forces.
Also, a Maute Group leader, Nasser Daud, may still be at large.
“Based on the info we have received from the military, the remnants of the Maute group a.k.a. IS Ranao have been 40 before the blast in Marawi,” Georgi Engelbrecht, a Manila-based analyst with international think tank the Crisis Group, told SEA MILITANCY.
“So if we have a few killed, it means that we have at least 25-30 left, going by logic. I think it is possible that they try to recruit again especially in Lanao del Sur, the vicinity of Butig and other towns on that side. Using mountains also. But of course, limited in movement.
“It is noteworthy that the ISIS attack claims often stem from operations in Lanao del Norte province, for example Munai. But that area is also not too far from Lanao del Sur and fighters can cross it of course.”
ANOTHER SEA MILITANCY EXCLUSIVE: ‘Foreign Islamic State spokesman - possibly Syrian - speaks from Mindanao’
Engelbrecht said the military do not have a lot of movement radius but for them, it seems to have been important to strike the local terror leaders.
“And if the terror group does not have the majority of their people on their side, they obviously have challenges to seek refuge,” he said.
“The Iranun corridor remains also fairly strong and resistant against influences from the Maute Group or cells from Maguindanao.”
The analyst was referring to the area between Lanao del Sur and Maguindanao del Norte provinces, namely Barira, Buldon, Parang and Matanog towns, where Iranun people live.
“Key risk is of course during the elections run-up. Politicians may use these groups or create scenarios to disturb the vote.”
The 2025 Bangsamoro Parliament election is scheduled to take place in the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM) on May 12.
BARMM covers six southern provinces namely Basilan, Lanao del Sur, Maguindanao del Norte, Maguindanao del Sur, Sulu and Tawi-Tawi.
‘Maute Group leader still alive’
Prior to the confirmation of the killing of the bombing mastermind Mimbesa, the Philippine Army was quoted as saying that the Maute Group they clashed against on Jan. 25-26 was led by a Nasser Daud.
Apparently, Daud, a rarely heard-of Maute leader, was not among the nine terrorists slain in the Jan. 25-26 firefights.
Daud first emerged in a news report after the Western Mindanao Command reported having recovered firearms during a pursuit of the Maute Group in Bulawan village, Marogong, Lanao del Sur, on June 19, 2023.
He was described as an ustadz or religious teacher in the SunStar report.
In the Jan. 25-26 firefights, five members of the Scout Rangers, the Army’s commando unit, were injured by the Maute Group led by Daud, Rappler reported.
SEA MILITANCY on Feb. 14 asked the Philippine Army’s 1st Infantry Division to comment on Engelbrecht’s observation as well Daud’s latest status and is still awaiting their response.
SEA MILITANCY has also requested information from the division on any ongoing operations against the Maute Group.
A military spokesperson on Feb. 13 said the Maute Group is currently on the brink of collapse.
Col. Francel Padilla told reporters they had neutralised 18 Maute Group members, i.e. 12 killed, three surrendered and another three arrested.
Padilla said these gains by the military “significantly decapitated” the Maute Group’s ability to launch large-scale terrorist attacks.
Apart from the Maute Group, other somehow still-active local pro-Islamic State terror groups include some factions of the Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters (BIFF), the Abu Sayyaf Group and the Hassan Group.
The Philippines is also grappling with a communist insurgent group called the New People’s Army and a faction of the BIFF not aligned with the Islamic State.